Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle a
NASA data indicate that the current cycle Solar could be the most intense in the last 50 years
December 21, 2006: The evidence increases: the next solar cycle will be great.
Solar Cycle 24, which will occur in 2010 or 2011, "seems to be one of the most intense cycles have occurred, since these were first documented almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway, of Marshall Space Flight Center (Marshall Space Flight Center) NASA. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union (American Geophysical Union), held in San Francisco.
Right: A prominent rash solar photographed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory - SOHO). [More Information]
His forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms.
Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits the Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power supply suspensions and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. The northern lights are a beautiful side effect of this phenomenon.
Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful: "The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what will be the solar cycle 6 to 8 years," says Hathaway. A picture is worth a thousand words:
Above: Peaks in geomagnetic activity (red) predict solar maximum (black) for the next 6 years. [More Information]
In the chart above, black curves are solar cycles, the amplitude is the sunspot number. The red curves are geomagnetic indices, specifically Inter Variability Index - Time (IHV, the acronym for Inter-hour Variability Index). "These indices are derived from magnetometer data recorded at two points on opposite sides of Earth: one in England and one in Australia. IHV data have been taken every day since 1868," says Hathaway.
The Cross correlating sunspot number vs.. the IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle for longer than 6 years with a correlation coefficient of 94%.
"We do not know why it works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it works."
According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around the year 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it the strongest solar cycles of the past 50 years - and therefore one of the strongest in recorded history.
Left: Hathaway and Wilson's predictions for the amplitude of Cycle 24. [More Information]
Astronomers have been counting sunspots since the days of Galileo, watching the rise and fall of solar activity every 11 years. Interestingly, four of the five biggest cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. "Cycle 24 should fit right into that pattern," says Hathaway.
These results are just the latest signs pointing to a big Cycle 24. The most important of all, believes Hathaway, is the work of Mausumi Dikpati and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. "They have combined observations of the 'conveyor belt' plot with a sophisticated computer model of the sun's inner dynamo to predict the next solar cycle taking physics as a base." In short, it will be intense. Details can be found in the history of Science @ NASA Solar Storm Warning.
"Everything is related," says Hathaway. Stay informed about solar activity.
Credits & Contacts Author: Dr. Tony Phillips Responsible NASA official
: John M.
Horack Production Editor: Dr. Tony Phillips Curator
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Bryan Walls Media Relations: Steve Roy
English Translation: Aixa Ivone Ardila
English Editor: Angela de Borghetti
Scientific Editor: Carlos Román
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This article was translated into English with the support of Astroseti.org
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